Good morning everyone 😊
It could be said that the greater market theme has been balance but on a much larger scale that most retail traders will never understand. With some minor excursions above/below the range has been clearly defined with 4440 capping it and 4270 supporting it.
Despite the fact that we have the upper end of the larger balance zone approaching quite quickly, I remain relatively bullish, especially after the session on Friday which saw constant reloading by Buyers on the tape as well as quite a few significant stop runs which led to the sharp move upwards. However, VIX is still trading at elevated levels, and this is a warning for less experienced traders to sit out and wait for calmer market conditions before executing any trades.
On a longer timeframe I started the process of ‘buying the dip’ at around 4260 on the $ES. We had quite a large move off these levels already with $SPY commons already up nearly 4% and $QQQ also up around 3% from when I posted. Returns which are very good given the current state of the market.
Before I dive into the section for today’s session, I would like to briefly discuss Friday the 28th’s session as many of my followers have asked for this. I had given 4283 and 4381 as levels before London opened, cumulatively these levels provided in excess of a 100 points with 4283 marking the RTH low to the tick while 4381 was the high of the day for a brief while leading to a nearly 60 point drop during the cash session. Furthermore, $NQ provided a 250 point drop from our 14,295 level on less than 15 points of MAE.
How did I get these levels?
A question I am asked a lot, I will not be giving away everything in my arsenal, but this was pretty simple. I used a volume profile on both the weekly and daily timeframes and used the insights that I have listed briefly in the following piece. I could give some more pointers, but you should tell me what you want to see…
Futures
On the note of futures, I am going to be leaning slightly bullish into the coming session for obvious reasons following the previous session.
The plan will be as follows:
$ES - I will be leaning bullish above 4371 with other levels of significance being 4444 and 4498. I expect a harder session to trade on Monday, as is usually the case in the aftermath of such a large move. I am personally trading reduced size due to the volatility and so are most other experienced traders and I would suggest this for most of my followers as well. Monday really has no vital news for traders to be made aware of apart from Chicago PMI at 9:45 EST and FOMC George speaking at 12:40 EST. Both events I don’t really care about.
$NQ - This is a harder read for me due to the big tech earnings recently but similarly to the $ES I will be leaning bullish above 14,127 with other levels of significance being 14,291. Due to recent market volatility, I have been ignoring NQ due to some slippage when trading size and instead have opted to focus more heavily on ES. But this is all reliant on your personal trading style as well as what you are aiming for.
- Fader Out 🐯
Disclaimer - All content should be used for education purposes only and is NOT in anyway financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor and nothing I say or post should be taken as financial advice. Futures trading as well as stock trading is extremely risky and always involves the risk of capital losses. All images used are of the platform Jigsaw trading and I am just the end user.
Thanks for the write up!
Appreciate the steer and write up Fader. Always on point and on the right side of the trade. One of the best out here - no fanboy shit - just saying it how it is.